Livingston vs Morton: model vs market
| Source | Livingston | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.08.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Livingston vs Morton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Livingston, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 1.27 | 1.27 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.00 |
| Morton | 9.07 | 9.00 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Livingston and Morton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Livingston / Morton)
- 1.11 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Livingston / Morton)
- 0.81 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Livingston vs Morton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Livingston goals. Columns: Morton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Livingston vs Morton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Livingston vs Morton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Morton | 12% | 8.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Livingston or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Morton) | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Livingston win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Livingston and Morton recent form
Livingston
2W 2D 2L
Morton
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Livingston at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
Morton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Livingston at home only, Morton away only.
Livingston vs Morton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Livingston 6 · draws 3 · Morton 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Morton | 1-4 | Livingston | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-04-12 | Morton | 1-2 | Livingston | Championship |
| 2025-02-25 | Livingston | 3-2 | Morton | Championship |
| 2024-12-07 | Morton | 0-0 | Livingston | Championship |
| 2024-11-12 | Livingston | 2-1 | Morton | Challenge Cup |
| 2024-08-24 | Livingston | 1-1 | Morton | Championship |
| 2022-07-02 | Livingston | 0-3 | Morton | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2018-04-07 | Livingston | 3-2 | Morton | Championship |
| 2018-03-13 | Livingston | 1-1 | Morton | Championship |
| 2018-02-27 | Morton | 0-1 | Livingston | Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Partick v Inverness CT — match page 2026-11-14
- Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Stenhousemuir v Queen's Park — match page 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Livingston, previous: Inverness CT v Livingston analysis
- Livingston, next: Queen's Park vs Livingston prediction
- Morton, previous: Morton vs Stenhousemuir: odds and pick
- Morton, next: Dunfermline v Morton analysis