Updated

Scotland Championship · Matchday 15

Partick vs Inverness CT

· Firhill Stadium, Glasgow· Referee L. Hogarth

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Partick to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PartickDrawInverness CT

Partick vs Inverness CT: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePartickDrawInverness CT
Model55%28%17%
Market51%26%23%
Published52%26%22%
Edge+1%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Partick vs Inverness CT odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Partick, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.75Now 1.81 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Partick1.751.81+0.06
Draw3.603.54-0.06
Inverness CT4.123.90-0.22

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Partick and Inverness CT expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Partick
0.77Inverness CT
Total expected goals
2.33
Attack rating (Partick / Inverness CT)
1.12 / 1.11
Defence rating (Partick / Inverness CT)
0.65 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Partick vs Inverness CT score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 6.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1 14.0% 12.9% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.8% 9.1% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 6.1% 4.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 3.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Partick goals. Columns: Inverness CT goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Partick vs Inverness CT goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Partick vs Inverness CT

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Partick52%1.93
Draw26%3.79
Inverness CT22%4.56
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.43
Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.30
No56%1.77
Double chance1X (Partick or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Inverness CT)48%2.07
Handicap -1Partick win by 2+30%3.36
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Partick and Inverness CT recent form

Partick 4W 1D 1L
Inverness CT 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Partick at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-1
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
0.43
Clean sheets
6 of 7
  • They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Inverness CT away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Partick at home only, Inverness CT away only.

Partick vs Inverness CT head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Partick 3 · draws 5 · Inverness CT 2.

PartickDrawsInverness CT
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-21Inverness CT1-1PartickScotland Championship
2026-01-13Partick3-3Inverness CTChallenge Cup
2024-03-30Partick1-0Inverness CTChampionship
2024-02-17Inverness CT3-3PartickChampionship
2023-12-23Partick1-1Inverness CTChampionship
2023-10-07Inverness CT0-0PartickChampionship
2023-03-24Inverness CT1-0PartickChampionship
2022-12-23Partick5-1Inverness CTChampionship
2022-10-07Inverness CT1-0PartickChampionship
2022-08-19Partick4-1Inverness CTChampionship

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match