Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Podbrezová	Draw	Spartak Trnava
Model	21%	23%	55%
Market	38%	26%	36%
Published	34%	25%	41%
Edge	-17%	-2%	+19%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.19.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Spartak Trnava below the model: +19.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Spartak Trnava, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.30Now 2.52 +0.22

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Podbrezová	2.70	2.42	-0.28
Draw	3.58	3.60	+0.02
Spartak Trnava	2.30	2.52	+0.22

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Podbrezová and Spartak Trnava expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Podbrezová

2.01Spartak Trnava

Total expected goals: 3.20
Attack rating (Podbrezová / Spartak Trnava): 0.92 / 1.26
Defence rating (Podbrezová / Spartak Trnava): 1.16 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 7.2% 8.3% 5.5% 4.4% 1 3.9% 10.7% 9.8% 6.6% 5.2% 2 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 3.9% 3.1% 3 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% 4+ 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Podbrezová goals. Columns: Spartak Trnava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Podbrezová	34%	2.96
	Draw	25%	4.00
	Spartak Trnava	41%	2.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.61
	Under 2.5	38%	2.63
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.64
	No	39%	2.57
Double chance	1X (Podbrezová or draw)	59%	1.70
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Spartak Trnava)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	Spartak Trnava win by 2+	34%	2.97
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Podbrezová and Spartak Trnava recent form

Podbrezová 2W 2D 2L

Spartak Trnava 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Podbrezová at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.75
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Spartak Trnava away

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 2.25
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Podbrezová at home only, Spartak Trnava away only.

Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Podbrezová 1 · draws 0 · Spartak Trnava 3.

25% 0% 75%

PodbrezováDrawsSpartak Trnava

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-03	Podbrezová	0-3	Spartak Trnava	Slovakia Super Liga
2026-04-05	Spartak Trnava	4-1	Podbrezová	Slovakia Super Liga
2026-02-21	Spartak Trnava	0-5	Podbrezová	Slovakia Super Liga
2025-12-03	Podbrezová	1-3	Spartak Trnava	Slovakia Super Liga

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Prediction snapshot Spartak Trnava to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Spartak Trnava