Entebbe UPPC vs Police Prediction & Betting Tips 09/10/2026

Entebbe UPPC vs Police preview

Entebbe UPPC faces Police in the Uganda Premier League with a 45% chance of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects a low-scoring match, supported by expected goals of 1.01 for Entebbe UPPC and just 0.55 for Police.

Both teams to score stands at 28%, and Over 2.5 goals is only at 21%. This suggests a tight game, but if Police can improve their attack, the outcome could differ from the model's predictions. Entebbe UPPC's recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, while Police has three draws in their last five.

Entebbe UPPC vs Police: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Entebbe UPPC	Draw	Police
Model	45%	37%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	45%	37%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.55.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Entebbe UPPC and Police expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Entebbe UPPC

0.55Police

Total expected goals: 1.56
Attack rating (Entebbe UPPC / Police): 1.00 / 0.95
Defence rating (Entebbe UPPC / Police): 0.70 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Entebbe UPPC vs Police score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.2% 10.4% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1 20.1% 12.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2 10.7% 5.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 3 3.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Entebbe UPPC goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Entebbe UPPC vs Police goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 47%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Entebbe UPPC vs Police

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Entebbe UPPC	45%	2.23
	Draw	37%	2.72
	Police	18%	5.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.85
	Under 2.5	79%	1.26
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.57
	No	72%	1.39
Double chance	1X (Entebbe UPPC or draw)	82%	1.23
	12 (either side)	63%	1.58
	X2 (draw or Police)	55%	1.81
Handicap -1	Entebbe UPPC win by 2+	18%	5.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer