Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 5

Entebbe UPPC vs Police

· Gaddafi Arena, Jinja

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Entebbe UPPC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

20% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Entebbe UPPCDrawPolice

Entebbe UPPC vs Police: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEntebbe UPPCDrawPolice
Model45%37%18%
Market41%32%28%
Published42%33%25%
Edge+1%+1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.55.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Entebbe UPPC and Police expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Entebbe UPPC
0.55Police
Total expected goals
1.56
Attack rating (Entebbe UPPC / Police)
1.00 / 0.95
Defence rating (Entebbe UPPC / Police)
0.70 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Entebbe UPPC vs Police score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.2% 10.4% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1 20.0% 12.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2 10.7% 5.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 3 3.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Entebbe UPPC goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Entebbe UPPC vs Police goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%
Over 1.5 47%
Over 2.5 21%
Over 3.5 7%
Both teams to score
28%
No goals (0–0)
22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Entebbe UPPC vs Police

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Entebbe UPPC42%2.41
Draw33%3.03
Police25%3.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.521%4.84
Under 2.579%1.26
Both teams to scoreYes28%3.56
No72%1.39
Double chance1X (Entebbe UPPC or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)67%1.49
X2 (draw or Police)58%1.71
Handicap -1Entebbe UPPC win by 2+18%5.48
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Entebbe UPPC and Police recent form

Entebbe UPPC 3W 2D 1L
Police 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Entebbe UPPC at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Police away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Entebbe UPPC at home only, Police away only.

Entebbe UPPC vs Police head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Entebbe UPPC 0 · draws 1 · Police 1.

Entebbe UPPCDrawsPolice
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-19Police1-1Entebbe UPPCUganda Premier League
2025-11-19Entebbe UPPC0-2PoliceUganda Premier League

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match