URA vs KCCA preview
URA faces KCCA in the Uganda Premier League with a close 1X2 probability split: URA at 31%, KCCA at 35%, and a draw at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. While the market shows a 30% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, the expected goals suggest a tighter match, with URA at 0.91 and KCCA at 1.00.
Recent form indicates URA has two losses followed by a win and two draws, while KCCA has a win, two draws, and two losses in their last six matches. The head-to-head record is even, with both teams having four wins each in the last ten encounters. This balance could lead to unexpected outcomes despite the model's predictions.
URA vs KCCA: model vs market
| Source | URA | Draw | KCCA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 34% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 34% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
URA and KCCA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.91
- Attack rating (URA / KCCA)
- 0.99 / 1.04
- Defence rating (URA / KCCA)
- 1.16 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
URA vs KCCA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: URA goals. Columns: KCCA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
URA vs KCCA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for URA vs KCCA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | URA | 31% | 3.27 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.91 | |
| KCCA | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.55 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (URA or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or KCCA) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win by 2+ | 14% | 7.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
URA and KCCA recent form
URA
2W 2D 2L
KCCA
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
URA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
KCCA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: URA at home only, KCCA away only.
URA vs KCCA head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: URA 4 · draws 2 · KCCA 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | URA | 0-0 | KCCA | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-11-21 | KCCA | 2-1 | URA | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-04-16 | URA | 1-0 | KCCA | Premier League |
| 2024-09-13 | KCCA | 1-0 | URA | Premier League |
| 2024-05-11 | URA | 1-0 | KCCA | Premier League |
| 2024-01-02 | KCCA | 3-2 | URA | Premier League |
| 2023-04-19 | URA | 2-0 | KCCA | Premier League |
| 2022-11-19 | KCCA | 1-1 | URA | Premier League |
| 2022-02-09 | KCCA | 1-0 | URA | Premier League |
| 2022-01-08 | URA | 1-0 | KCCA | Premier League |
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