Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 5

URA vs KCCA

· Hamz Stadium

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was KCCA to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
URADrawKCCA

URA vs KCCA: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceURADrawKCCA
Model31%34%35%
Market34%31%36%
Published33%32%36%
Edge-1%+1%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

URA vs KCCA odds movement

Median bookmaker price on KCCA, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.24Now 2.50 +0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
URA3.122.65-0.47
Draw2.912.92+0.01
KCCA2.242.50+0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

URA and KCCA expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.92URA
1.00KCCA
Total expected goals
1.91
Attack rating (URA / KCCA)
0.99 / 1.04
Defence rating (URA / KCCA)
1.16 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

URA vs KCCA score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.1% 13.4% 7.3% 2.4% 0.8% 1 12.2% 14.8% 6.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2 6.2% 6.2% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 3 1.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: URA goals. Columns: KCCA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

URA vs KCCA goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for URA vs KCCA

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2URA33%3.04
Draw32%3.17
KCCA36%2.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.33
Under 2.570%1.43
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.55
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (URA or draw)64%1.55
12 (either side)68%1.46
X2 (draw or KCCA)67%1.49
Handicap -1KCCA win by 2+14%7.24
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

URA and KCCA recent form

URA 2W 2D 2L
KCCA 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

URA at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

KCCA away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: URA at home only, KCCA away only.

URA vs KCCA head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: URA 4 · draws 2 · KCCA 4.

URADrawsKCCA
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-19URA0-0KCCAUganda Premier League
2025-11-21KCCA2-1URAUganda Premier League
2025-04-16URA1-0KCCAPremier League
2024-09-13KCCA1-0URAPremier League
2024-05-11URA1-0KCCAPremier League
2024-01-02KCCA3-2URAPremier League
2023-04-19URA2-0KCCAPremier League
2022-11-19KCCA1-1URAPremier League
2022-02-09KCCA1-0URAPremier League
2022-01-08URA1-0KCCAPremier League

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match