UPDF vs BUL: model vs market
| Source | UPDF | Draw | BUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Published | 28% | 31% | 40% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
UPDF and BUL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (UPDF / BUL)
- 0.88 / 1.22
- Defence rating (UPDF / BUL)
- 0.92 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UPDF vs BUL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UPDF goals. Columns: BUL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UPDF vs BUL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UPDF vs BUL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.19 | |
| BUL | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.41 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UPDF or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or BUL) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | BUL win by 2+ | 12% | 8.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
UPDF and BUL recent form
UPDF
2W 2D 2L
BUL
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UPDF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
BUL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: UPDF at home only, BUL away only.
UPDF vs BUL head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: UPDF 4 · draws 2 · BUL 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | BUL | 2-5 | UPDF | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-30 | UPDF | 0-1 | BUL | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-05-24 | UPDF | 2-3 | BUL | Premier League |
| 2024-12-04 | BUL | 0-2 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2024-03-12 | BUL | 0-1 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2023-11-09 | UPDF | 2-0 | BUL | Premier League |
| 2023-02-21 | UPDF | 1-1 | BUL | Premier League |
| 2022-10-08 | BUL | 3-1 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2022-03-01 | BUL | 5-1 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2021-12-22 | UPDF | 1-1 | BUL | Premier League |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Entebbe UPPC vs Police — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- URA vs KCCA 2026-10-09
Before and after this match
- UPDF, previous: Express vs UPDF prediction
- UPDF, next: KCCA v UPDF analysis
- BUL, previous: Lugazi vs BUL prediction
- BUL, next: BUL vs NEC prediction