UPDF vs BUL preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between UPDF and BUL, the model gives BUL a slight edge with a 35% probability of winning compared to UPDF's 33% and a 33% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% probability. Both teams to score has a 43% chance, indicating a moderate likelihood of both sides finding the net.
UPDF's expected goals stand at 1.01, while BUL's is slightly higher at 1.05. Recent form shows UPDF with one win in their last six matches, while BUL has won four of their last five. This disparity in form could influence the outcome, but the close probabilities suggest the match could still go either way.
UPDF vs BUL: model vs market
| Source | UPDF | Draw | BUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 33% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 33% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
UPDF and BUL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (UPDF / BUL)
- 0.78 / 1.35
- Defence rating (UPDF / BUL)
- 0.94 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UPDF vs BUL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UPDF goals. Columns: BUL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UPDF vs BUL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UPDF vs BUL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 33% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.03 | |
| BUL | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UPDF or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or BUL) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | BUL win by 2+ | 14% | 7.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UPDF and BUL recent form
UPDF
1W 3D 2L
BUL
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UPDF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
BUL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: UPDF at home only, BUL away only.
UPDF vs BUL head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: UPDF 4 · draws 2 · BUL 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | BUL | 2-5 | UPDF | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-30 | UPDF | 0-1 | BUL | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-05-24 | UPDF | 2-3 | BUL | Premier League |
| 2024-12-04 | BUL | 0-2 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2024-03-12 | BUL | 0-1 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2023-11-09 | UPDF | 2-0 | BUL | Premier League |
| 2023-02-21 | UPDF | 1-1 | BUL | Premier League |
| 2022-10-08 | BUL | 3-1 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2022-03-01 | BUL | 5-1 | UPDF | Premier League |
| 2021-12-22 | UPDF | 1-1 | BUL | Premier League |
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