BUL vs NEC Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/2026

BUL vs NEC preview

In the Uganda Premier League fixture between BUL and NEC, the 1X2 probabilities show BUL and NEC both at 33%, with a draw slightly favored at 34%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-0, which has a 15% probability. Both teams have similar expected goals at 0.98, indicating a potentially tight match.

Despite BUL's recent form of D-W-W-W-W-L, they have not won against NEC in their last two encounters, with NEC winning once and drawing once. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 31%, while both teams to score is at 40%. These figures suggest that while a low-scoring game is likely, a surprise result could come from either side's attacking capabilities.

BUL vs NEC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	BUL	Draw	NEC
Model	33%	34%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	34%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

BUL and NEC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97BUL

0.99NEC

Total expected goals: 1.96
Attack rating (BUL / NEC): 1.22 / 1.19
Defence rating (BUL / NEC): 0.95 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

BUL vs NEC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.4% 12.6% 6.9% 2.3% 0.7% 1 12.3% 14.9% 6.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2 6.6% 6.6% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 3 2.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: BUL goals. Columns: NEC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

BUL vs NEC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 31%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for BUL vs NEC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	BUL	33%	3.07
	Draw	34%	2.95
	NEC	34%	2.98
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	31%	3.20
	Under 2.5	69%	1.46
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.47
	No	60%	1.68
Double chance	1X (BUL or draw)	66%	1.50
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or NEC)	67%	1.48
Handicap -1	NEC win by 2+	13%	7.63
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer