Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC preview

Kigezi HomeBoyz face NEC with 17% chances of winning for Kigezi, 33% for a draw, and 50% for NEC. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 18% of the time according to our model. Kigezi HomeBoyz's expected goals stand at 0.61, while NEC's is 1.22, indicating a potential advantage for NEC.

Kigezi HomeBoyz's recent form shows two losses and a draw, while NEC has won three of their last five matches. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals are at 28%, and both teams to score is at 33%. These figures suggest that while NEC may have the upper hand, any unexpected performance from Kigezi could alter the outcome.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kigezi HomeBoyz	Draw	NEC
Model	18%	35%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	18%	35%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.56.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.56Kigezi HomeBoyz

1.09NEC

Total expected goals: 1.66
Attack rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / NEC): 0.65 / 1.10
Defence rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / NEC): 1.20 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.2% 19.7% 11.4% 4.2% 1.4% 1 9.6% 12.9% 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 2 3.0% 3.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 3 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Kigezi HomeBoyz goals. Columns: NEC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 51%

Over 2.5 23%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 30%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kigezi HomeBoyz	18%	5.64
	Draw	35%	2.85
	NEC	47%	2.12
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	23%	4.31
	Under 2.5	77%	1.30
Both teams to score	Yes	30%	3.35
	No	70%	1.43
Double chance	1X (Kigezi HomeBoyz or draw)	53%	1.89
	12 (either side)	65%	1.54
	X2 (draw or NEC)	82%	1.22
Handicap -1	NEC win by 2+	20%	4.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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