Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 6

Kataka vs Kitara

· BCS Sports complex Bukedea, Bukedea

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Kitara to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KatakaDrawKitara

Kataka vs Kitara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKatakaDrawKitara
Model24%32%44%
Market———
Published24%32%44%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kataka and Kitara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.82Kataka
1.21Kitara
Total expected goals
2.03
Attack rating (Kataka / Kitara)
0.78 / 1.22
Defence rating (Kataka / Kitara)
1.20 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kataka vs Kitara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.5% 14.6% 9.6% 3.9% 1.5% 1 9.5% 14.3% 7.9% 3.2% 1.2% 2 4.4% 5.3% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Kataka goals. Columns: Kitara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kataka vs Kitara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kataka vs Kitara

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kataka24%4.21
Draw32%3.09
Kitara44%2.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.02
Under 2.567%1.50
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.47
No59%1.68
Double chance1X (Kataka or draw)56%1.78
12 (either side)68%1.48
X2 (draw or Kitara)76%1.31
Handicap -1Kitara win by 2+20%5.01
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kataka and Kitara recent form

Kataka 0W 2D 2L
Kitara 3W 3D 0L

Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kataka at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Kitara away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Kataka at home only, Kitara away only.

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match