Ntugasaze vs KCCA Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Ntugasaze vs KCCA: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ntugasaze	Draw	KCCA
Model	16%	28%	56%
Market	—	—	—
Published	16%	28%	56%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.71.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ntugasaze and KCCA expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.71Ntugasaze

1.52KCCA

Total expected goals: 2.23
Attack rating (Ntugasaze / KCCA): 0.77 / 1.04
Defence rating (Ntugasaze / KCCA): 1.77 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ntugasaze vs KCCA score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.9% 15.2% 12.4% 6.3% 3.3% 1 6.5% 12.8% 8.8% 4.5% 2.4% 2 2.7% 4.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 3 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ntugasaze goals. Columns: KCCA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ntugasaze vs KCCA goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 41%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ntugasaze vs KCCA

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ntugasaze	16%	6.16
	Draw	28%	3.54
	KCCA	56%	1.80
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.60
	Under 2.5	62%	1.62
Both teams to score	Yes	41%	2.45
	No	59%	1.69
Double chance	1X (Ntugasaze or draw)	44%	2.25
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or KCCA)	84%	1.19
Handicap -1	KCCA win by 2+	30%	3.36
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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