Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 6

Ntugasaze vs KCCA

· Kiira Road Police Arena

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was KCCA to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NtugasazeDrawKCCA

Ntugasaze vs KCCA: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNtugasazeDrawKCCA
Model19%32%49%
Market———
Published19%32%49%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.69.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ntugasaze and KCCA expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.69Ntugasaze
1.26KCCA
Total expected goals
1.95
Attack rating (Ntugasaze / KCCA)
0.80 / 0.99
Defence rating (Ntugasaze / KCCA)
1.53 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ntugasaze vs KCCA score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.5% 16.7% 11.4% 4.8% 2.0% 1 8.5% 13.6% 7.8% 3.3% 1.4% 2 3.4% 4.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 3 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ntugasaze goals. Columns: KCCA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ntugasaze vs KCCA goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 59%
Over 2.5 31%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ntugasaze vs KCCA

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ntugasaze19%5.27
Draw32%3.13
KCCA49%2.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531%3.23
Under 2.569%1.45
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.71
No63%1.58
Double chance1X (Ntugasaze or draw)51%1.96
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or KCCA)81%1.23
Handicap -1KCCA win by 2+23%4.30
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ntugasaze and KCCA recent form

Ntugasaze 1W 0D 4L
KCCA 3W 1D 2L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ntugasaze at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

KCCA away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ntugasaze at home only, KCCA away only.

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match