Vipers vs Maroons Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Vipers vs Maroons: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Vipers	Draw	Maroons
Model	71%	22%	7%
Market	—	—	—
Published	71%	22%	7%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.42.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vipers and Maroons expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Vipers

0.42Maroons

Total expected goals: 2.26
Attack rating (Vipers / Maroons): 1.22 / 0.97
Defence rating (Vipers / Maroons): 0.52 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vipers vs Maroons score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.2% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1 18.4% 8.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 2 17.7% 7.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 3 10.9% 4.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 7.6% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Vipers goals. Columns: Maroons goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vipers vs Maroons goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 30%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vipers vs Maroons

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Vipers	71%	1.40
	Draw	22%	4.59
	Maroons	7%	14.63
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.54
	Under 2.5	61%	1.65
Both teams to score	Yes	30%	3.37
	No	70%	1.42
Double chance	1X (Vipers or draw)	93%	1.07
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Maroons)	29%	3.50
Handicap -1	Vipers win by 2+	45%	2.24
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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