Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 6

Vipers vs Maroons

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Vipers to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VipersDrawMaroons

Vipers vs Maroons: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVipersDrawMaroons
Model74%20%7%
Market72%19%9%
Published73%19%8%
Edge0%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.46.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Vipers vs Maroons odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vipers, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.23Now 1.24 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Vipers1.231.24+0.01
Draw4.854.75-0.10
Maroons10.5010.00-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Vipers and Maroons expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.01Vipers
0.46Maroons
Total expected goals
2.47
Attack rating (Vipers / Maroons)
1.45 / 1.15
Defence rating (Vipers / Maroons)
0.48 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vipers vs Maroons score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1 16.3% 8.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 2 17.2% 7.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 3 11.5% 5.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 9.2% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Vipers goals. Columns: Maroons goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vipers vs Maroons goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
32%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vipers vs Maroons

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vipers73%1.38
Draw19%5.24
Maroons8%11.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.24
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes32%3.08
No68%1.48
Double chance1X (Vipers or draw)92%1.09
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Maroons)27%3.65
Handicap -1Vipers win by 2+48%2.07
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Vipers and Maroons recent form

Vipers 3W 2D 1L
Maroons 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vipers at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Maroons away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Vipers at home only, Maroons away only.

Vipers vs Maroons head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Vipers 7 · draws 3 · Maroons 0.

VipersDrawsMaroons
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-19Maroons0-3VipersUganda Premier League
2025-11-22Vipers2-1MaroonsUganda Premier League
2025-04-24Maroons0-1VipersPremier League
2025-01-06Vipers1-0MaroonsPremier League
2024-04-23Vipers1-1MaroonsPremier League
2023-12-13Maroons1-1VipersPremier League
2023-04-05Maroons2-2VipersPremier League
2022-11-04Vipers3-0MaroonsPremier League
2020-02-26Vipers5-0MaroonsPremier League
2019-11-22Maroons0-3VipersPremier League

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match