Police vs SC Villa Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Police vs SC Villa preview

In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Police and SC Villa, the 1X2 probabilities show Police at 26%, a draw at 35%, and SC Villa at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance. Police has an expected goals figure of 0.77, while SC Villa's is 1.02, indicating a potential advantage for SC Villa.

However, both teams have had mixed recent form, with Police recording W-D-L-W-D-D and SC Villa at D-W-W-W-D-W. The model suggests a 27% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance for both teams to score. These factors could influence the outcome, especially if Police can improve their scoring.

Police vs SC Villa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Police	Draw	SC Villa
Model	19%	31%	50%
Market	—	—	—
Published	19%	31%	50%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.69.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Police and SC Villa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.69Police

1.30SC Villa

Total expected goals: 1.99
Attack rating (Police / SC Villa): 0.86 / 1.54
Defence rating (Police / SC Villa): 1.02 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Police vs SC Villa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.8% 16.5% 11.5% 5.0% 2.2% 1 8.2% 13.5% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2 3.3% 4.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 3 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Police goals. Columns: SC Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Police vs SC Villa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Police vs SC Villa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Police	19%	5.37
	Draw	31%	3.19
	SC Villa	50%	2.00
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.11
	Under 2.5	68%	1.47
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.66
	No	62%	1.60
Double chance	1X (Police or draw)	50%	2.00
	12 (either side)	69%	1.46
	X2 (draw or SC Villa)	81%	1.23
Handicap -1	SC Villa win by 2+	24%	4.13
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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