Kataka vs SC Villa Prediction & Betting Tips 07/10/2026

Kataka vs SC Villa preview

Kataka faces SC Villa in the Uganda Premier League, with SC Villa holding a 62% chance to win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with SC Villa's expected goals of 1.62 compared to Kataka's 0.56.

However, Kataka's recent form shows two losses and a draw, which could impact their performance. The market indicates a 37% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance for both teams to score, suggesting that while SC Villa is favored, the match could still have surprises.

Kataka vs SC Villa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kataka	Draw	SC Villa
Model	12%	26%	62%
Market	—	—	—
Published	12%	26%	62%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.56.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kataka and SC Villa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.56Kataka

1.62SC Villa

Total expected goals: 2.18
Attack rating (Kataka / SC Villa): 0.74 / 1.58
Defence rating (Kataka / SC Villa): 1.24 / 0.60

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kataka vs SC Villa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.3% 17.2% 14.8% 7.9% 4.6% 1 5.4% 11.3% 8.3% 4.5% 2.6% 2 1.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.7% 3 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Kataka goals. Columns: SC Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kataka vs SC Villa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 37%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kataka vs SC Villa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kataka	12%	8.59
	Draw	26%	3.81
	SC Villa	62%	1.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37%	2.69
	Under 2.5	63%	1.59
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.81
	No	64%	1.55
Double chance	1X (Kataka or draw)	38%	2.64
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or SC Villa)	88%	1.13
Handicap -1	SC Villa win by 2+	35%	2.84
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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