Maroons vs Lugazi preview
Maroons face Lugazi in the Uganda Premier League with a 49% probability of winning, compared to Lugazi's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% chance. Maroons have shown mixed recent form with two losses, one win, and another two losses in their last six matches. Lugazi's form is slightly better, with two wins, three losses, and one draw.
The model suggests a low likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 36%. Maroons average expected goals of 1.26, while Lugazi has a lower average at 0.68. Given the confidence grade of C, the probabilities are based solely on the model and may not fully capture match-day dynamics.
Maroons vs Lugazi: model vs market
| Source | Maroons | Draw | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.68.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Maroons and Lugazi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.94
- Attack rating (Maroons / Lugazi)
- 0.97 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Maroons / Lugazi)
- 1.21 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Maroons vs Lugazi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Maroons goals. Columns: Lugazi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Maroons vs Lugazi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Maroons vs Lugazi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Lugazi | 19% | 5.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.74 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Maroons or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Lugazi) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win by 2+ | 23% | 4.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Maroons and Lugazi recent form
Maroons
2W 0D 4L
Lugazi
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Maroons at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Lugazi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Maroons at home only, Lugazi away only.
Maroons vs Lugazi head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Maroons 4 · draws 0 · Lugazi 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Lugazi | 0-1 | Maroons | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-11-25 | Maroons | 3-0 | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-03-28 | Lugazi | 0-1 | Maroons | Premier League |
| 2024-10-06 | Maroons | 1-0 | Lugazi | Premier League |
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