Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City Prediction & Betting Tips 07/10/2026

Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City preview

In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Ntugasaze and Mbarara City, the model gives Mbarara City a 37% chance to win, slightly ahead of Ntugasaze at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% probability. Both teams to score stands at 45%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 37%.

Ntugasaze has lost their last four matches, while Mbarara City has a mixed recent form with one win in their last six games. The expected goals show Ntugasaze at 1.03 and Mbarara City at 1.14, indicating a close contest. However, if Ntugasaze can improve their performance, the outcome could differ from the model's predictions.

Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ntugasaze	Draw	Mbarara City
Model	31%	32%	37%
Market	—	—	—
Published	31%	32%	37%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ntugasaze and Mbarara City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Ntugasaze

1.14Mbarara City

Total expected goals: 2.17
Attack rating (Ntugasaze / Mbarara City): 0.77 / 0.77
Defence rating (Ntugasaze / Mbarara City): 1.77 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.8% 11.6% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 1 10.5% 14.8% 7.6% 2.9% 1.0% 2 6.1% 6.9% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 3 2.1% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Ntugasaze goals. Columns: Mbarara City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 37%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ntugasaze	31%	3.18
	Draw	32%	3.12
	Mbarara City	37%	2.74
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37%	2.71
	Under 2.5	63%	1.59
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.22
	No	55%	1.82
Double chance	1X (Ntugasaze or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Mbarara City)	69%	1.46
Handicap -1	Mbarara City win by 2+	16%	6.38
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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