NEC vs Express preview
NEC faces Express in the Uganda Premier League, with a strong 62% probability for a NEC win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects NEC's expected goals of 1.62 compared to Express's 0.58.
However, the match could be affected by Express's recent form, which shows two wins in their last six matches. Both teams to score has a 36% probability, indicating that while NEC is favored to win, Express could still find the net. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
NEC vs Express: model vs market
| Source | NEC | Draw | Express |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 26% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 26% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
NEC and Express expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (NEC / Express)
- 1.24 / 0.93
- Defence rating (NEC / Express)
- 0.75 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NEC vs Express score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NEC goals. Columns: Express goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NEC vs Express goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NEC vs Express
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Express | 12% | 8.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.76 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NEC or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Express) | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NEC and Express recent form
NEC
3W 1D 2L
Express
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NEC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Express away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: NEC at home only, Express away only.
NEC vs Express head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: NEC 2 · draws 2 · Express 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Express | 0-0 | NEC | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-31 | NEC | 0-0 | Express | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-03-27 | NEC | 3-1 | Express | Premier League |
| 2024-10-03 | Express | 2-1 | NEC | Premier League |
| 2024-05-13 | Express | 1-2 | NEC | Premier League |
| 2023-12-21 | NEC | 2-5 | Express | Premier League |
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