Lugazi vs BUL Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Lugazi vs BUL: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lugazi	Draw	BUL
Model	26%	33%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	33%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Lugazi and BUL expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.88Lugazi

1.17BUL

Total expected goals: 2.05
Attack rating (Lugazi / BUL): 0.68 / 1.35
Defence rating (Lugazi / BUL): 1.04 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lugazi vs BUL score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.2% 13.7% 8.8% 3.4% 1.3% 1 10.0% 14.6% 7.7% 3.0% 1.1% 2 5.0% 5.8% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Lugazi goals. Columns: BUL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lugazi vs BUL goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 62%

Over 2.5 34%

Over 3.5 15%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lugazi vs BUL

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lugazi	26%	3.80
	Draw	33%	3.06
	BUL	41%	2.44
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34%	2.98
	Under 2.5	66%	1.51
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.40
	No	58%	1.71
Double chance	1X (Lugazi or draw)	59%	1.70
	12 (either side)	67%	1.48
	X2 (draw or BUL)	74%	1.36
Handicap -1	BUL win by 2+	18%	5.51
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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