Lugazi vs BUL: model vs market
| Source | Lugazi | Draw | BUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 30% | 48% |
| Market | 17% | 28% | 54% |
| Published | 18% | 29% | 53% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lugazi and BUL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Lugazi / BUL)
- 0.63 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Lugazi / BUL)
- 1.21 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lugazi vs BUL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lugazi goals. Columns: BUL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lugazi vs BUL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lugazi vs BUL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lugazi | 18% | 5.50 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| BUL | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lugazi or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or BUL) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | BUL win by 2+ | 24% | 4.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lugazi and BUL recent form
Lugazi
2W 0D 4L
BUL
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lugazi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
BUL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Lugazi at home only, BUL away only.
Lugazi vs BUL head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lugazi 1 · draws 1 · BUL 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | BUL | 0-0 | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-27 | Lugazi | 2-1 | BUL | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-04-29 | BUL | 4-0 | Lugazi | Premier League |
| 2025-01-03 | Lugazi | 1-2 | BUL | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Kataka v Kitara — match page 2026-10-10
- Mbarara City vs Blacks Power 2026-10-11
- Vipers vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Ntugasaze vs KCCA — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Police vs SC Villa 2026-10-14
- Kigezi HomeBoyz v NEC — match page 2026-10-14
- Express vs UPDF — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- URA vs Entebbe UPPC 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Lugazi, next: Lugazi v Express analysis
- BUL, next: UPDF vs BUL prediction