Mbarara City vs Blacks Power Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Mbarara City vs Blacks Power: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mbarara City	Draw	Blacks Power
Model	30%	35%	35%
Market	—	—	—
Published	30%	35%	35%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mbarara City and Blacks Power expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89Mbarara City

0.98Blacks Power

Total expected goals: 1.86
Attack rating (Mbarara City / Blacks Power): 0.77 / 1.09
Defence rating (Mbarara City / Blacks Power): 1.08 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mbarara City vs Blacks Power score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.8% 13.8% 7.4% 2.4% 0.7% 1 12.4% 14.8% 6.6% 2.1% 0.6% 2 6.1% 6.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 3 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mbarara City goals. Columns: Blacks Power goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mbarara City vs Blacks Power goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 57%

Over 2.5 29%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mbarara City vs Blacks Power

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mbarara City	30%	3.31
	Draw	35%	2.87
	Blacks Power	35%	2.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	29%	3.49
	Under 2.5	71%	1.40
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.63
	No	62%	1.61
Double chance	1X (Mbarara City or draw)	65%	1.54
	12 (either side)	65%	1.53
	X2 (draw or Blacks Power)	70%	1.43
Handicap -1	Blacks Power win by 2+	14%	7.37
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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