Updated

Uganda Premier League · Matchday 6

Mbarara City vs Blacks Power

· Rwamwanja stadium

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Mbarara City to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mbarara CityDrawBlacks Power

Mbarara City vs Blacks Power: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMbarara CityDrawBlacks Power
Model41%33%26%
Market———
Published41%33%26%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mbarara City and Blacks Power expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Mbarara City
0.83Blacks Power
Total expected goals
1.96
Attack rating (Mbarara City / Blacks Power)
0.70 / 0.96
Defence rating (Mbarara City / Blacks Power)
1.05 / 1.28

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mbarara City vs Blacks Power score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.5% 10.5% 4.9% 1.4% 0.3% 1 14.5% 14.6% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4% 2 8.9% 7.4% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 3 3.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mbarara City goals. Columns: Blacks Power goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mbarara City vs Blacks Power goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 31%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mbarara City vs Blacks Power

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mbarara City41%2.45
Draw33%2.99
Blacks Power26%3.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531%3.21
Under 2.569%1.45
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.53
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (Mbarara City or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)67%1.50
X2 (draw or Blacks Power)59%1.69
Handicap -1Mbarara City win by 2+18%5.67
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mbarara City and Blacks Power recent form

Mbarara City 1W 2D 3L
Blacks Power 3W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mbarara City at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

Blacks Power away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mbarara City at home only, Blacks Power away only.

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match