Blacks Power vs URA preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Blacks Power and URA, the 1X2 probabilities show Blacks Power at 44%, while URA sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a probability of 11%.
Blacks Power has an expected goals figure of 1.39, compared to URA's 1.03. Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a balanced chance for scoring. However, recent form shows Blacks Power with three losses in their last four matches, and URA has also struggled, losing three of their last five. This could lead to an unexpected outcome, despite the statistical edge for Blacks Power.
Blacks Power vs URA: model vs market
| Source | Blacks Power | Draw | URA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Blacks Power and URA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Blacks Power / URA)
- 0.96 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Blacks Power / URA)
- 1.34 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Blacks Power vs URA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Blacks Power goals. Columns: URA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Blacks Power vs URA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Blacks Power vs URA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blacks Power | 42% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| URA | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Blacks Power or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or URA) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Blacks Power win by 2+ | 19% | 5.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Blacks Power and URA recent form
Blacks Power
3W 0D 3L
URA
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Blacks Power at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
URA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Blacks Power at home only, URA away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Maroons v Kataka — match page 2026-10-20
- BUL vs NEC 2026-10-21
- Kitara v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-21
- Lugazi vs Express — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- SC Villa v Mbarara City — match page 2026-10-22
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- KCCA vs UPDF 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Blacks Power, previous: Mbarara City vs Blacks Power: odds and pick
- URA, previous: URA – Entebbe UPPC, 2026-10-15