Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC preview
Kigezi HomeBoyz face Entebbe UPPC with a 12% chance of winning for the home team compared to 57% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 21%. Kigezi HomeBoyz's recent form shows 4 losses and 1 draw, while Entebbe UPPC has won 4 of their last 6 matches.
With expected goals of 0.46 for Kigezi HomeBoyz and 1.32 for Entebbe UPPC, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 26%, and both teams to score stands at 28%. A poor performance by Entebbe UPPC could lead to a different outcome, but their current form suggests they are in a stronger position heading into this match.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC: model vs market
| Source | Kigezi HomeBoyz | Draw | Entebbe UPPC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 33% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 11% | 33% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.40.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Entebbe UPPC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.62
- Attack rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / Entebbe UPPC)
- 0.58 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Kigezi HomeBoyz / Entebbe UPPC)
- 1.27 / 0.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kigezi HomeBoyz goals. Columns: Entebbe UPPC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 24%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 11% | 8.85 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Entebbe UPPC | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 24% | 4.10 |
| No | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kigezi HomeBoyz or draw) | 44% | 2.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Entebbe UPPC) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Entebbe UPPC win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 30% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kigezi HomeBoyz and Entebbe UPPC recent form
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0W 1D 4L
Entebbe UPPC
3W 2D 1L
Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kigezi HomeBoyz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Entebbe UPPC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kigezi HomeBoyz at home only, Entebbe UPPC away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Maroons v Kataka — match page 2026-10-20
- Blacks Power vs URA — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- BUL vs NEC 2026-10-21
- Kitara v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-21
- Lugazi vs Express — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- SC Villa v Mbarara City — match page 2026-10-22
- KCCA vs UPDF 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Kigezi HomeBoyz, previous: Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC: odds and pick
- Entebbe UPPC, previous: URA – Entebbe UPPC, 2026-10-15