KCCA vs UPDF preview
KCCA faces UPDF with a 52% chance of winning compared to UPDF's 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which has a 21% probability. KCCA's expected goals stand at 1.16, while UPDF's is significantly lower at 0.49.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast. With only a 23% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 28% likelihood for both teams to score, the game may end up being lower-scoring than anticipated. KCCA's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while UPDF has 2 wins in the same period, indicating potential for an upset.
KCCA vs UPDF: model vs market
| Source | KCCA | Draw | UPDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 34% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 34% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
KCCA and UPDF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.66
- Attack rating (KCCA / UPDF)
- 1.04 / 0.88
- Defence rating (KCCA / UPDF)
- 0.64 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KCCA vs UPDF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KCCA goals. Columns: UPDF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KCCA vs UPDF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 28%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KCCA vs UPDF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.95 | |
| UPDF | 15% | 6.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28% | 3.58 |
| No | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KCCA or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or UPDF) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win by 2+ | 23% | 4.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
KCCA and UPDF recent form
KCCA
3W 1D 2L
UPDF
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KCCA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
UPDF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: KCCA at home only, UPDF away only.
KCCA vs UPDF head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: KCCA 2 · draws 0 · UPDF 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | UPDF | 1-2 | KCCA | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-27 | KCCA | 4-0 | UPDF | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Maroons v Kataka — match page 2026-10-20
- Blacks Power vs URA — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- BUL vs NEC 2026-10-21
- Kitara v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-21
- Lugazi vs Express — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- SC Villa v Mbarara City — match page 2026-10-22
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC — team news & stats 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- KCCA, previous: Ntugasaze – KCCA, 2026-10-13
- UPDF, previous: UPDF vs BUL prediction