Maroons vs Kataka preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Maroons and Kataka, the 1X2 probabilities show Maroons at 74%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 13%. Maroons have an expected goals figure of 2.35, while Kataka's is just 0.69. This suggests a strong performance from Maroons, who have a better recent form compared to Kataka.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Kataka has struggled recently, with 5 matches without a win, but they could still disrupt the match if they manage to score. The model predicts a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score, highlighting potential for more action if Kataka finds their form.
Maroons vs Kataka: model vs market
| Source | Maroons | Draw | Kataka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Maroons and Kataka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Maroons / Kataka)
- 1.15 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Maroons / Kataka)
- 1.11 / 1.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Maroons vs Kataka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Maroons goals. Columns: Kataka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Maroons vs Kataka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Maroons vs Kataka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 74% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.59 | |
| Kataka | 8% | 11.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Maroons or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Kataka) | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win by 2+ | 51% | 1.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Maroons and Kataka recent form
Maroons
2W 1D 3L
Kataka
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Maroons at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Kataka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Maroons at home only, Kataka away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Blacks Power vs URA — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- BUL vs NEC 2026-10-21
- Kitara v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-21
- Lugazi vs Express — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- SC Villa v Mbarara City — match page 2026-10-22
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- KCCA vs UPDF 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Maroons, previous: Vipers v Maroons analysis
- Kataka, previous: Kataka vs Vipers: odds and pick