SC Villa vs Mbarara City preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between SC Villa and Mbarara City, SC Villa has a strong 79% probability to win, while Mbarara City sits at just 5%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, occurring at a 16% chance. SC Villa's expected goals are 2.40, compared to Mbarara City's 0.50, highlighting a significant offensive advantage.
However, there are factors that could affect this outcome. Mbarara City has shown some resilience with a recent win, and SC Villa's confidence grade is C, indicating potential vulnerabilities. Additionally, while the model suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score, these outcomes depend on the performance on the day.
SC Villa vs Mbarara City: model vs market
| Source | SC Villa | Draw | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79% | 16% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 79% | 16% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
SC Villa and Mbarara City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (SC Villa / Mbarara City)
- 1.90 / 0.84
- Defence rating (SC Villa / Mbarara City)
- 0.69 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Villa vs Mbarara City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Villa goals. Columns: Mbarara City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Villa vs Mbarara City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Villa vs Mbarara City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Villa | 79% | 1.26 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.40 | |
| Mbarara City | 5% | 18.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.73 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Villa or draw) | 95% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Mbarara City) | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win by 2+ | 57% | 1.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SC Villa and Mbarara City recent form
SC Villa
4W 2D 0L
Mbarara City
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Villa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mbarara City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Villa at home only, Mbarara City away only.
SC Villa vs Mbarara City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: SC Villa 2 · draws 0 · Mbarara City 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Mbarara City | 1-3 | SC Villa | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-28 | SC Villa | 6-1 | Mbarara City | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Maroons v Kataka — match page 2026-10-20
- Blacks Power vs URA — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- BUL vs NEC 2026-10-21
- Kitara v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-21
- Lugazi vs Express — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- KCCA vs UPDF 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- SC Villa, previous: Police v SC Villa analysis
- Mbarara City, previous: Mbarara City vs Blacks Power: odds and pick