Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' preview
In the Persha Liga fixture on 2026-10-23, Metal Kharkiv has a 30% chance to win against Yarud Mariupol', who has a 37% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% probability. Metal Kharkiv's expected goals stand at 0.97, while Yarud Mariupol' has 1.12 expected goals.
Both teams to score has a 43% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 35%. Recent form shows Metal Kharkiv with two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Yarud Mariupol' has three wins and three draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol': model vs market
| Source | Metal Kharkiv | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 31% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 31% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Metal Kharkiv / Yarud Mariupol')
- 0.89 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Metal Kharkiv / Yarud Mariupol')
- 0.94 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Metal Kharkiv goals. Columns: Yarud Mariupol' goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metal Kharkiv | 25% | 3.92 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Metal Kharkiv or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Yarud Mariupol') | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win by 2+ | 20% | 4.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
Metal Kharkiv
1W 2D 3L
Yarud Mariupol'
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Metal Kharkiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Metal Kharkiv at home only, Yarud Mariupol' away only.
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Metal Kharkiv 1 · draws 1 · Yarud Mariupol' 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Metal Kharkiv | 1-1 | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| 2025-10-09 | Yarud Mariupol' | 0-1 | Metal Kharkiv | Persha Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Metal Kharkiv, previous: Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Metal Kharkiv: odds and pick
- Yarud Mariupol', previous: Yarud Mariupol' – Inhulets, 2026-10-17