Polissya II vs SK Poltava preview
In the match between Polissya II and SK Poltava, the 1X2 probabilities show SK Poltava at 61%, while Polissya II sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance of occurring. The expected goals indicate Polissya II at 1.42 and SK Poltava at 2.54, suggesting a scoring advantage for the visitors.
The model predicts a high chance of goals, with 76% for Over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score. However, Polissya II's recent form, with a record of L-D-L-L-W-D, could impact their performance. If they can improve their consistency, they might challenge SK Poltava more than expected.
Polissya II vs SK Poltava: model vs market
| Source | Polissya II | Draw | SK Poltava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 20% | 61% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 19% | 20% | 61% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Polissya II and SK Poltava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (Polissya II / SK Poltava)
- 1.20 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Polissya II / SK Poltava)
- 1.69 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Polissya II vs SK Poltava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Polissya II goals. Columns: SK Poltava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Polissya II vs SK Poltava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Polissya II vs SK Poltava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polissya II | 19% | 5.14 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.12 | |
| SK Poltava | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.42 |
| No | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Polissya II or draw) | 39% | 2.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or SK Poltava) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | SK Poltava win by 2+ | 41% | 2.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Polissya II and SK Poltava recent form
Polissya II
1W 2D 3L
SK Poltava
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Polissya II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
SK Poltava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Polissya II at home only, SK Poltava away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Chernihiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' 2026-10-23
- Oleksandria v Probiy Horodenka — match page 2026-10-24
- Prykarpattia vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Polissya II, previous: Probiy Horodenka – Polissya II, 2026-10-18
- SK Poltava, previous: SK Poltava v Prykarpattia analysis