Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 12

SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia

· Lokomotyv Stadium, Poltava

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was SK Poltava to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SK PoltavaDrawPrykarpattia

SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSK PoltavaDrawPrykarpattia
Model38%32%30%
Market45%29%26%
Published43%30%27%
Edge-8%+3%+4%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SK Poltava, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.71Now 1.98 +0.27
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SK Poltava1.711.98+0.27
Draw3.703.11-0.59
Prykarpattia4.403.49-0.91

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SK Poltava and Prykarpattia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14SK Poltava
0.98Prykarpattia
Total expected goals
2.13
Attack rating (SK Poltava / Prykarpattia)
1.17 / 0.87
Defence rating (SK Poltava / Prykarpattia)
1.05 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.2% 10.4% 5.8% 1.9% 0.6% 1 12.3% 14.7% 6.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2 7.8% 7.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 3 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: SK Poltava goals. Columns: Prykarpattia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SK Poltava43%2.30
Draw30%3.37
Prykarpattia27%3.73
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.79
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.27
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (SK Poltava or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Prykarpattia)57%1.77
Handicap -1SK Poltava win by 2+16%6.10
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SK Poltava and Prykarpattia recent form

SK Poltava 2W 1D 3L
Prykarpattia 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SK Poltava at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-0
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Prykarpattia away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: SK Poltava at home only, Prykarpattia away only.

SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: SK Poltava 2 · draws 0 · Prykarpattia 2.

SK PoltavaDrawsPrykarpattia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-05-25SK Poltava3-0PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2024-04-19Prykarpattia3-1SK PoltavaPersha Liga
2023-05-20Prykarpattia0-1SK PoltavaPersha Liga
2023-04-22SK Poltava0-1PrykarpattiaPersha Liga

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match