Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Nyva Ternopil preview
In the match between Lokomotiv Kyiv and Nyva Ternopil, the 1X2 probabilities show Lokomotiv Kyiv at 45%, compared to Nyva Ternopil at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% chance. Lokomotiv Kyiv has an expected goals figure of 1.42, while Nyva Ternopil sits at 1.03.
Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a balanced potential for goals from both sides. However, Lokomotiv Kyiv's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Nyva Ternopil has struggled with 2 wins in their last 5. This discrepancy in form could influence the match outcome, making it less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Nyva Ternopil: model vs market
| Source | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Draw | Nyva Ternopil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Nyva Ternopil odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lokomotiv Kyiv, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 2.06 | 2.01 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.20 | -0.05 |
| Nyva Ternopil | 3.25 | 3.44 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Nyva Ternopil expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Lokomotiv Kyiv / Nyva Ternopil)
- 1.24 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Lokomotiv Kyiv / Nyva Ternopil)
- 0.99 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Nyva Ternopil score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lokomotiv Kyiv goals. Columns: Nyva Ternopil goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Nyva Ternopil goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Nyva Ternopil
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Nyva Ternopil | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lokomotiv Kyiv or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Nyva Ternopil) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Kyiv win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Nyva Ternopil recent form
Lokomotiv Kyiv
4W 1D 1L
Nyva Ternopil
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lokomotiv Kyiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nyva Ternopil away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Kyiv at home only, Nyva Ternopil away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv 2026-10-17
- Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Metal Kharkiv — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA 2026-10-17
- Yarud Mariupol' v Inhulets — match page 2026-10-17
- SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kulykiv v Oleksandria — match page 2026-10-18
- Probiy Horodenka vs Polissya II — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Lokomotiv Kyiv, previous: Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv: odds and pick
- Nyva Ternopil, previous: Nyva Ternopil – Kolos Kovalivka II, 2026-10-11