Updated

Albania Superliga · Matchday 8

Laci vs Vora

Alin prediction Vora to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LaciDrawVora

Laci vs Vora preview

In the Albania Superliga fixture between Laci and Vora, the 1X2 probabilities show Vora at 42%, Laci at 32%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability. Vora has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Laci's 1.39, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.

The model also suggests a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability for both teams to score. However, Laci's recent form of L-L-L-W-L-W could impact their performance negatively, while Vora's recent results include W-D-D-L-L-L, which may not inspire confidence.

Laci vs Vora: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLaciDrawVora
Model32%26%42%
Market———
Published32%26%42%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Laci and Vora expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Laci
1.61Vora
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Laci / Vora)
0.87 / 1.30
Defence rating (Laci / Vora)
1.22 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Laci vs Vora score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 6.9% 6.4% 3.5% 2.0% 1 5.8% 12.2% 9.0% 4.8% 2.8% 2 4.8% 7.8% 6.2% 3.4% 1.9% 3 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9% 4+ 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Laci goals. Columns: Vora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Laci vs Vora goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Laci vs Vora

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Laci32%3.12
Draw26%3.80
Vora42%2.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.73
Under 2.542%2.37
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (Laci or draw)58%1.71
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Vora)68%1.47
Handicap -1Vora win by 2+22%4.60
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Laci and Vora recent form

Laci 2W 0D 4L
Vora 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Laci at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vora away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Laci at home only, Vora away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Vora to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Vora