Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani preview
Teuta Durrës faces AF Elbasani with a strong 70% probability of winning, while AF Elbasani has just a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with expected goals of 2.10 for Teuta Durrës and 0.68 for AF Elbasani.
However, recent form shows Teuta Durrës is on a six-match winning streak, while AF Elbasani has only one win in their last six games. Despite Teuta Durrës's dominance, their head-to-head record indicates they have not beaten AF Elbasani in the last four matches, with 2 wins for AF Elbasani and 2 draws. This could challenge the expected outcome, particularly for the 1X2 market.
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani: model vs market
| Source | Teuta Durrës | Draw | AF Elbasani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Teuta Durrës / AF Elbasani)
- 1.32 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Teuta Durrës / AF Elbasani)
- 0.62 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Teuta Durrës goals. Columns: AF Elbasani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Teuta Durrës | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | |
| AF Elbasani | 10% | 10.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Teuta Durrës or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or AF Elbasani) | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Teuta Durrës win by 2+ | 46% | 2.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Teuta Durrës and AF Elbasani recent form
Teuta Durrës
6W 0D 0L
AF Elbasani
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Teuta Durrës at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
AF Elbasani away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Teuta Durrës at home only, AF Elbasani away only.
Teuta Durrës vs AF Elbasani head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Teuta Durrës 0 · draws 2 · AF Elbasani 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Teuta Durrës | 1-2 | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga |
| 2026-02-06 | AF Elbasani | 2-1 | Teuta Durrës | Albania Superliga |
| 2025-12-03 | Teuta Durrës | 0-0 | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga |
| 2025-09-27 | AF Elbasani | 0-0 | Teuta Durrës | Albania Superliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Partizani vs Skenderbeu Korce 2026-10-24
- Laci v Vora — match page 2026-10-24
- Vllaznia Shkodër v Tirana — match page 2026-10-24
- Dinamo Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Teuta Durrës, previous: Dinamo Tirana v Teuta Durrës analysis
- AF Elbasani, previous: Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani prediction