Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani preview
In the Albania Superliga fixture between Skenderbeu Korce and AF Elbasani, the 1X2 probabilities show AF Elbasani at 38% and Skenderbeu Korce at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 54% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 48%.
Skenderbeu Korce's recent form includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, while AF Elbasani has 1 win in their last 6 as well. This could affect the outcome, as Skenderbeu Korce has an expected goals figure of 1.25 compared to AF Elbasani's 1.33. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani: model vs market
| Source | Skenderbeu Korce | Draw | AF Elbasani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Skenderbeu Korce and AF Elbasani expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Skenderbeu Korce / AF Elbasani)
- 0.82 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Skenderbeu Korce / AF Elbasani)
- 1.17 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Skenderbeu Korce goals. Columns: AF Elbasani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Skenderbeu Korce | 34% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| AF Elbasani | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Skenderbeu Korce or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or AF Elbasani) | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | AF Elbasani win by 2+ | 18% | 5.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Skenderbeu Korce and AF Elbasani recent form
Skenderbeu Korce
0W 3D 3L
AF Elbasani
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Skenderbeu Korce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AF Elbasani away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Skenderbeu Korce at home only, AF Elbasani away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Dinamo Tirana vs Teuta Durrës 2026-10-16
- Tirana vs Laci — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Vora vs Partizani — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Vllaznia Shkodër — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Skenderbeu Korce, previous: Teuta Durrës – Skenderbeu Korce, 2026-10-10
- AF Elbasani, previous: AF Elbasani vs Vora: odds and pick