Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah preview
In the Armenia Premier League match between Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Noah at 53%, while Ararat-Armenia sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. FC Noah's recent form is strong, with 6 matches unbeaten, while Ararat-Armenia has mixed results, winning 3 of their last 5.
The model predicts a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. Ararat-Armenia has expected goals of 1.09, compared to FC Noah's 1.82. If Ararat-Armenia performs better than expected, it could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah: model vs market
| Source | Ararat-Armenia | Draw | FC Noah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Ararat-Armenia / FC Noah)
- 1.02 / 1.66
- Defence rating (Ararat-Armenia / FC Noah)
- 0.92 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ararat-Armenia goals. Columns: FC Noah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 22% | 4.65 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| FC Noah | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ararat-Armenia or draw) | 47% | 2.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Noah) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah recent form
Ararat-Armenia
3W 1D 2L
FC Noah
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ararat-Armenia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Noah away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 9 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.6 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ararat-Armenia at home only, FC Noah away only.
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ararat-Armenia 1 · draws 1 · FC Noah 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Ararat-Armenia | 0-4 | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-11-01 | FC Noah | 1-2 | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-09-20 | Ararat-Armenia | 2-2 | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Sardarapat vs FC Urartu — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Van vs Ararat 2026-10-23
- Pyunik Yerevan vs Gandzasar 2026-10-23
- Shirak vs Alashkert — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Syunik v BKMA — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Ararat-Armenia, previous: Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-22
- Ararat-Armenia, next: Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
- FC Noah, previous: FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan prediction