Van vs Ararat preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Van and Ararat, the 1X2 probabilities show Ararat at 40%, Van at 33%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 54%.
Van's recent form is L-W-L-W-L-L, while Ararat has a D-D-W-W-L-L record. Van has 2 wins against Ararat's 1 in their last 3 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. The expected goals are Van 1.34 and Ararat 1.48, suggesting a close match that could swing based on finishing.
Van vs Ararat: model vs market
| Source | Van | Draw | Ararat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Van and Ararat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Van / Ararat)
- 0.74 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Van / Ararat)
- 1.51 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Van vs Ararat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Van goals. Columns: Ararat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Van vs Ararat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Van vs Ararat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Van | 33% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Ararat | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Van or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Ararat) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Van and Ararat recent form
Van
2W 0D 4L
Ararat
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Van at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Ararat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Van at home only, Ararat away only.
Van vs Ararat head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Van 2 · draws 0 · Ararat 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Ararat | 1-2 | Van | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-03-07 | Van | 1-2 | Ararat | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-08-09 | Ararat | 0-1 | Van | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Sardarapat vs FC Urartu — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Pyunik Yerevan vs Gandzasar 2026-10-23
- Shirak vs Alashkert — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Syunik v BKMA — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Van, previous: FC Urartu v Van analysis
- Ararat, previous: Ararat vs Shirak: odds and pick