Shirak vs Alashkert preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Shirak and Alashkert, the 1X2 probabilities show Alashkert at 56%, while Shirak sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 0-1, which aligns with Alashkert's expected goals of 1.80 compared to Shirak's 0.97.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Shirak improves their recent form, which includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches. Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a chance for Shirak to find the net despite their struggles. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Shirak vs Alashkert: model vs market
| Source | Shirak | Draw | Alashkert |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.97.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Shirak and Alashkert expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Shirak / Alashkert)
- 0.79 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Shirak / Alashkert)
- 1.02 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shirak vs Alashkert score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shirak goals. Columns: Alashkert goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shirak vs Alashkert goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shirak vs Alashkert
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shirak | 19% | 5.29 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Alashkert | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shirak or draw) | 44% | 2.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Alashkert) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Shirak and Alashkert recent form
Shirak
2W 1D 3L
Alashkert
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shirak at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Alashkert away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shirak at home only, Alashkert away only.
Shirak vs Alashkert head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Shirak 0 · draws 1 · Alashkert 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Alashkert | 2-0 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-10-17 | Shirak | 1-2 | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-10-03 | Alashkert | 1-1 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Sardarapat vs FC Urartu — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Van vs Ararat 2026-10-23
- Pyunik Yerevan vs Gandzasar 2026-10-23
- Syunik v BKMA — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Shirak, previous: Ararat vs Shirak: odds and pick
- Alashkert, previous: Alashkert vs Syunik prediction