Sardarapat vs FC Urartu preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture, Sardarapat faces FC Urartu with 36% and 41% probabilities respectively for a win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.80 for Sardarapat and 1.92 for FC Urartu. The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, both at 72%.
However, Sardarapat's recent form shows W-L-D-D-L-L, which could affect their performance. FC Urartu's form is slightly better at W-D-W-L-L-D, but their inconsistency may also play a role. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Sardarapat vs FC Urartu: model vs market
| Source | Sardarapat | Draw | FC Urartu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sardarapat and FC Urartu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.72
- Attack rating (Sardarapat / FC Urartu)
- 1.10 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Sardarapat / FC Urartu)
- 1.29 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sardarapat vs FC Urartu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sardarapat goals. Columns: FC Urartu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sardarapat vs FC Urartu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sardarapat vs FC Urartu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sardarapat | 36% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| FC Urartu | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sardarapat or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Urartu) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Urartu win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sardarapat and FC Urartu recent form
Sardarapat
1W 2D 3L
FC Urartu
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sardarapat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Urartu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sardarapat at home only, FC Urartu away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Van vs Ararat 2026-10-23
- Pyunik Yerevan vs Gandzasar 2026-10-23
- Shirak vs Alashkert — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Syunik v BKMA — match page 2026-10-25
- Ararat-Armenia v FC Noah — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Sardarapat, previous: Gandzasar – Sardarapat, 2026-10-16
- FC Urartu, previous: FC Urartu v Van analysis