Sturm Graz vs Ried preview
Sturm Graz faces Ried with 46% 1X2 probability for a home win compared to Ried's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 7% of the time in our model. Sturm Graz has an expected goals figure of 1.42, while Ried's is higher at 1.73.
Both teams to score stands at 64%, suggesting chances for goals from both sides. However, Sturm Graz's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Ried has 4 wins in the same period. This could impact the outcome, making it possible for Ried to perform better than expected.
Sturm Graz vs Ried: model vs market
| Source | Sturm Graz | Draw | Ried |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | -12% | 0% | +13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sturm Graz vs Ried odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.80 | 1.70 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.94 | +0.18 |
| Ried | 3.77 | 4.41 | +0.64 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sturm Graz and Ried expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Ried)
- 1.16 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Ried)
- 0.93 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sturm Graz vs Ried score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Ried goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sturm Graz vs Ried goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sturm Graz vs Ried
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Ried | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sturm Graz or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Ried) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sturm Graz and Ried recent form
Sturm Graz
3W 1D 2L
Ried
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sturm Graz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ried away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sturm Graz at home only, Ried away only.
Sturm Graz vs Ried head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sturm Graz 2 · draws 0 · Ried 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Sturm Graz | 1-0 | Ried | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-16 | Ried | 1-3 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- SCR Altach v Austria Vienna — match page 2026-10-23
- WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK 2026-10-24
- Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau 2026-10-24
- TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sturm Graz, previous: Sturm Graz – Marseille, 2026-10-22
- Sturm Graz, next: Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz analysis
- Ried, previous: Ried v Austria Vienna analysis
- Ried, next: Lask Linz vs Ried prediction