TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC preview
In the upcoming match between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a 47% chance of a home win for Hartberg, while Wolfsberger AC has a 30% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Hartberg's expected goals stand at 2.77, indicating a strong attacking performance, while Wolfsberger's expected goals are only 1.46, reflecting their recent struggles.
Hartberg's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, compared to Wolfsberger's poor run of 1 draw and 5 losses. The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 73%. However, if Wolfsberger can improve their form, it could challenge these predictions.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC: model vs market
| Source | TSV Hartberg | Draw | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 47% | 24% | 30% |
| Edge | +24% | -8% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices TSV Hartberg below the model: +24.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on TSV Hartberg, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Hartberg | 2.38 | 2.30 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.62 | +0.12 |
| Wolfsberger AC | 2.69 | 2.78 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.22
- Attack rating (TSV Hartberg / Wolfsberger AC)
- 1.38 / 0.83
- Defence rating (TSV Hartberg / Wolfsberger AC)
- 1.38 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: TSV Hartberg goals. Columns: Wolfsberger AC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TSV Hartberg | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Wolfsberger AC | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (TSV Hartberg or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolfsberger AC) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | TSV Hartberg win by 2+ | 45% | 2.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC recent form
TSV Hartberg
3W 2D 1L
Wolfsberger AC
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
TSV Hartberg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolfsberger AC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: TSV Hartberg at home only, Wolfsberger AC away only.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: TSV Hartberg 1 · draws 1 · Wolfsberger AC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Wolfsberger AC | 1-2 | TSV Hartberg | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-09-20 | TSV Hartberg | 2-2 | Wolfsberger AC | Austria Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- SCR Altach v Austria Vienna — match page 2026-10-23
- WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK 2026-10-24
- Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau 2026-10-24
- Sturm Graz vs Ried — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- TSV Hartberg, previous: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg prediction
- TSV Hartberg, next: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg: odds and pick
- Wolfsberger AC, previous: Wolfsberger AC – WSG Wattens, 2026-10-18
- Wolfsberger AC, next: WSPG Wels v Wolfsberger AC analysis