Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg preview
In the Austria Cup match between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg, the 1X2 probabilities show TSV Hartberg at 69%, while Austria Vienna sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, with expected goals of 0.97 for Austria Vienna compared to 2.47 for TSV Hartberg.
While Over 2.5 goals has a high probability of 67% and both teams to score is at 58%, Austria Vienna's recent form includes two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance. TSV Hartberg, on the other hand, has won four of their last six games, indicating stronger momentum heading into this fixture.
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg: model vs market
| Source | Austria Vienna | Draw | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 18% | 69% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 12% | 18% | 69% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Austria Vienna / TSV Hartberg)
- 0.84 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Austria Vienna / TSV Hartberg)
- 0.81 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austria Vienna goals. Columns: TSV Hartberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austria Vienna | 12% | 8.22 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.41 | |
| TSV Hartberg | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austria Vienna or draw) | 31% | 3.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or TSV Hartberg) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | TSV Hartberg win by 2+ | 48% | 2.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg recent form
Austria Vienna
2W 1D 3L
TSV Hartberg
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
TSV Hartberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Austria Vienna at home only, TSV Hartberg away only.
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Austria Vienna 3 · draws 0 · TSV Hartberg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | TSV Hartberg | 0-2 | Austria Vienna | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2026-05-03 | Austria Vienna | 1-0 | TSV Hartberg | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2026-03-22 | TSV Hartberg | 0-1 | Austria Vienna | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-01 | TSV Hartberg | 2-1 | Austria Vienna | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-24 | Austria Vienna | 1-3 | TSV Hartberg | Austria Bundesliga |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- First Vienna vs Rapid Vienna 2026-10-27
- WSPG Wels vs Wolfsberger AC — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Grazer AK vs SCR Altach — team news & stats 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Austria Vienna, previous: Ried v Austria Vienna analysis
- TSV Hartberg, previous: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg prediction