Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz preview

In the Austria Cup fixture, Austria Lustenau has a 8% chance of winning, while Sturm Graz stands at 76%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which reflects a 12% probability. Austria Lustenau's expected goals are 0.77, compared to Sturm Graz's 2.61, indicating a significant disparity in attacking potential.

While Over 2.5 goals has a 66% likelihood and both teams to score is at 51%, factors like Austria Lustenau's recent form of L-L-W-L-W-L could impact the match outcome. Sturm Graz's form shows more promise with W-L-W-L-D-W, but the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions.

Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Austria Lustenau	Draw	Sturm Graz
Model	8%	16%	76%
Market	—	—	—
Published	8%	16%	76%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.77.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.77Austria Lustenau

2.61Sturm Graz

Total expected goals: 3.39
Attack rating (Austria Lustenau / Sturm Graz): 0.90 / 0.91
Defence rating (Austria Lustenau / Sturm Graz): 1.06 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 8.2% 11.5% 10.1% 12.3% 1 1.9% 7.5% 8.9% 7.8% 9.5% 2 1.0% 2.6% 3.5% 3.0% 3.7% 3 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: Austria Lustenau goals. Columns: Sturm Graz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Austria Lustenau	8%	12.43
	Draw	16%	6.28
	Sturm Graz	76%	1.32
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.52
	Under 2.5	34%	2.92
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.98
	No	49%	2.03
Double chance	1X (Austria Lustenau or draw)	24%	4.17
	12 (either side)	84%	1.19
	X2 (draw or Sturm Graz)	92%	1.09
Handicap -1	Sturm Graz win by 2+	55%	1.81
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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