Updated

Bolivia Primera División · Apertura - 23

Independiente Petrolero vs ABB

· Estadio Olimpico Patria, Sucre

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Independiente Petrolero to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Independiente PetroleroDrawABB

Independiente Petrolero vs ABB: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIndependiente PetroleroDrawABB
Model49%28%23%
Market58%22%20%
Published56%23%21%
Edge-2%+2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.98.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Independiente Petrolero vs ABB odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Independiente Petrolero, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 1.60Now 1.56 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Independiente Petrolero1.601.56-0.04
Draw4.034.18+0.15
ABB4.344.60+0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Independiente Petrolero and ABB expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Independiente Petrolero
0.98ABB
Total expected goals
2.53
Attack rating (Independiente Petrolero / ABB)
0.65 / 0.72
Defence rating (Independiente Petrolero / ABB)
1.06 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Independiente Petrolero vs ABB score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 6.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.1% 13.3% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 3 4.9% 4.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 2.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Independiente Petrolero goals. Columns: ABB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Independiente Petrolero vs ABB goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Independiente Petrolero vs ABB

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Independiente Petrolero56%1.78
Draw23%4.28
ABB21%4.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.16
Under 2.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.98
No50%2.02
Double chance1X (Independiente Petrolero or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or ABB)44%2.28
Handicap -1Independiente Petrolero win by 2+26%3.85
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Independiente Petrolero and ABB recent form

Independiente Petrolero 1W 1D 4L
ABB 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Independiente Petrolero at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-5
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.18
Goals against / match
1.64
Clean sheets
2 of 11
  • They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

ABB away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-9
Win rate
9%
Goals for / match
1.09
Goals against / match
2.82
Clean sheets
0 of 11
  • They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente Petrolero at home only, ABB away only.

Expected lineups

Independiente Petrolero lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Jhunior Vera
  2. 34 G. Mendoza
  3. 3 L. Crescencio
  4. 50 Roni Santos
  5. 2 S. Torres
  6. 6 D. Rojas
  7. 26 L. Sanchez
  8. 7 R. Cardozo
  9. 93 Willie
  10. 99 Ferreirinha
  11. 91 G. Álvarez

Bench: J. Gutiérrez, L. Rodríguez, Luis Braihan Palma Escobar, Gean, Cristian Jhamil Urdininea Zambrana, J. Bejarano, A. Mercado, W. Soleto, P. Grass, Juan David Morales Ruiz

ABB lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 J. Cuellar
  2. 42 Z. La Fuente
  3. 22 S. Reyes
  4. 55 Augusto Héctor Seimandi
  5. 75 D. Valda
  6. 24 J. Rojas
  7. 30 A. Bejarano
  8. 17 Rodderyk Perozo
  9. 21 P. Vaca
  10. 3 A. Chumacero
  11. 11 Felipe Fajardo Juan

Bench: A. Riascos, J. Riascos, Sebastian Claure, J. Briceño, M. Salazar, A. Camacho, B. Espinoza, F. Zamora, Andrés Guillermo, J. Minah

Independiente Petrolero vs ABB head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Independiente Petrolero 2 · draws 0 · ABB 1.

Independiente PetroleroDrawsABB
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-16ABB3-1Independiente PetroleroBolivia Primera División
2025-11-21Independiente Petrolero2-0ABBBolivia Primera División
2025-07-29ABB1-2Independiente PetroleroBolivia Primera División

Other Apertura - 23 fixtures

Before and after this match