Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero preview
In the match between Real Potosí and Independiente Petrolero, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Potosí at 72% to win, while Independiente Petrolero sits at just 6%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 20% chance of occurring. Real Potosí has been in strong form recently, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, while Independiente Petrolero has struggled, with 4 losses in their last 5 games.
However, the model indicates a 37% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance for both teams to score. If Independiente Petrolero can improve their attacking output, they might challenge the expected goals of 1.80 for Real Potosí and 0.38 for themselves. This could alter the dynamics of the match significantly.
Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero: model vs market
| Source | Real Potosí | Draw | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 22% | 6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 22% | 6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.38.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Real Potosí and Independiente Petrolero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Real Potosí / Independiente Petrolero)
- 0.82 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Real Potosí / Independiente Petrolero)
- 0.45 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Potosí goals. Columns: Independiente Petrolero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 27%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Potosí | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Independiente Petrolero | 6% | 15.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27% | 3.68 |
| No | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Potosí or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Independiente Petrolero) | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Potosí win by 2+ | 44% | 2.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Potosí and Independiente Petrolero recent form
Real Potosí
4W 1D 1L
Independiente Petrolero
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Potosí at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-2
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 0.55
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 11
- They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Independiente Petrolero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Potosí at home only, Independiente Petrolero away only.
Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Real Potosí 1 · draws 0 · Independiente Petrolero 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Independiente Petrolero | 1-2 | Real Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 24 fixtures
- Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Real Potosí, previous: San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs Real Potosí: odds and pick
- Independiente Petrolero, previous: Independiente Petrolero vs ABB prediction