Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí preview
In the fixture between Nacional Potosí and Real Potosí, the 1X2 probabilities show Nacional Potosí at 40%, draw at 34%, and Real Potosí at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance according to our model.
Nacional Potosí has an expected goals figure of 1.09, while Real Potosí stands at 0.81. Despite Nacional Potosí's higher probability of winning, the recent form of Real Potosí, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, could challenge this prediction. Additionally, both teams to score is at 38%, indicating a potential for a tighter match than the numbers suggest.
Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí: model vs market
| Source | Nacional Potosí | Draw | Real Potosí |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 34% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nacional Potosí, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosí | 1.90 | 1.90 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.56 | +0.01 |
| Real Potosí | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nacional Potosí and Real Potosí expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.90
- Attack rating (Nacional Potosí / Real Potosí)
- 0.94 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Nacional Potosí / Real Potosí)
- 0.84 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nacional Potosí goals. Columns: Real Potosí goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional Potosí | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Real Potosí | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.62 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nacional Potosí or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Potosí) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nacional Potosí win by 2+ | 17% | 5.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nacional Potosí and Real Potosí recent form
Nacional Potosí
2W 2D 2L
Real Potosí
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nacional Potosí at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-4
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Potosí away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Nacional Potosí at home only, Real Potosí away only.
Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Nacional Potosí 0 · draws 1 · Real Potosí 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Real Potosí | 1-1 | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
- Independiente Petrolero v Real Tomayapo — match page 2026-11-06
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Always Ready vs ABB 2026-11-07
- Guabirá v San Antonio Bulo Bulo — match page 2026-11-07
- Bolívar vs The Strongest 2026-11-08
- Blooming v Oriente Petrolero — match page 2026-11-08
- Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto — team news & stats 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Nacional Potosí, previous: Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí prediction
- Real Potosí, previous: Real Potosí v Independiente Petrolero analysis