Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro preview
In the match between Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro, the 1X2 probabilities show Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 61%, while Real Oruro sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Gualberto Villarroel SJ has an expected goals figure of 2.20 compared to Real Oruro's 1.10, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.
However, Gualberto Villarroel SJ's recent form shows 3 losses in their last 6 matches, which could affect their performance. Real Oruro has not been consistent either, with 3 losses in their last 6 as well. While the model suggests Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 60%, fluctuations in form could lead to different outcomes.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro: model vs market
| Source | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Draw | Real Oruro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.25.
- The market prices Gualberto Villarroel SJ below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gualberto Villarroel SJ, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 1.69 | 1.97 | +0.28 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 3.77 | -0.32 |
| Real Oruro | 3.94 | 3.09 | -0.85 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.55
- Attack rating (Gualberto Villarroel SJ / Real Oruro)
- 0.90 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Gualberto Villarroel SJ / Real Oruro)
- 1.17 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gualberto Villarroel SJ goals. Columns: Real Oruro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Real Oruro | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Oruro) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ win by 2+ | 39% | 2.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro recent form
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2W 0D 4L
Real Oruro
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Real Oruro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 2.58
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home only, Real Oruro away only.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2 · draws 4 · Real Oruro 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Real Oruro | 1-0 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2026-08-29 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 4-1 | Real Oruro | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2026-07-11 | Real Oruro | 3-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2026-02-07 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 3-2 | Real Oruro | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| 2026-02-01 | Real Oruro | 1-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| 2025-11-08 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 2-2 | Real Oruro | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Oruro | 1-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-08-31 | Real Oruro | 4-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-05-25 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 0-0 | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2023-10-14 | Real Oruro | 2-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Nacional B |
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
- Independiente Petrolero v Real Tomayapo — match page 2026-11-06
- Always Ready vs ABB 2026-11-07
- Guabirá v San Antonio Bulo Bulo — match page 2026-11-07
- Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Bolívar vs The Strongest 2026-11-08
- Blooming v Oriente Petrolero — match page 2026-11-08
- Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto — team news & stats 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ, previous: The Strongest v Gualberto Villarroel SJ analysis
- Real Oruro, previous: Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí prediction