Bolívar vs The Strongest preview
In the upcoming match between Bolívar and The Strongest, Bolívar has a 63% chance of winning compared to The Strongest's 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% probability. Bolívar's expected goals stand at 2.31, while The Strongest's is significantly lower at 1.13.
Bolívar is in strong recent form, winning their last 6 matches, while The Strongest has mixed results with 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6. The model also indicates a 67% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score. However, a draw or an unexpected performance from The Strongest could alter the expected outcome.
Bolívar vs The Strongest: model vs market
| Source | Bolívar | Draw | The Strongest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Published | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bolívar below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bolívar vs The Strongest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bolívar, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolívar | 1.80 | 1.74 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.96 | -0.04 |
| The Strongest | 3.40 | 3.71 | +0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bolívar and The Strongest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Bolívar / The Strongest)
- 1.30 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Bolívar / The Strongest)
- 0.70 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bolívar vs The Strongest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bolívar goals. Columns: The Strongest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bolívar vs The Strongest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bolívar vs The Strongest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| The Strongest | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bolívar or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or The Strongest) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win by 2+ | 41% | 2.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bolívar and The Strongest recent form
Bolívar
6W 0D 0L
The Strongest
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bolívar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 17 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
The Strongest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bolívar at home only, The Strongest away only.
Bolívar vs The Strongest head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bolívar 1 · draws 1 · The Strongest 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | The Strongest | 1-1 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-11-30 | The Strongest | 2-3 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-06-22 | Bolívar | 1-2 | The Strongest | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
- Independiente Petrolero v Real Tomayapo — match page 2026-11-06
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Always Ready vs ABB 2026-11-07
- Guabirá v San Antonio Bulo Bulo — match page 2026-11-07
- Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Blooming v Oriente Petrolero — match page 2026-11-08
- Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto — team news & stats 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Bolívar, previous: Guabirá vs Bolívar: odds and pick
- The Strongest, previous: The Strongest v Gualberto Villarroel SJ analysis