Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto preview
In the match between Aurora and Universitario de Vinto, the 1X2 probabilities show Aurora at 68%, while Universitario de Vinto stands at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects Aurora's expected goals of 1.99 compared to Universitario de Vinto's 0.84.
While Aurora has a strong recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, Universitario de Vinto has also shown resilience, winning 3 of their last 5. The model predicts a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, which could suggest a tighter match than expected if Universitario de Vinto performs better than anticipated.
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto: model vs market
| Source | Aurora | Draw | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 63% | 22% | 16% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.84.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aurora, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 1.31 | 1.44 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 4.20 | -0.70 |
| Universitario de Vinto | 7.67 | 5.60 | -2.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aurora and Universitario de Vinto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Aurora / Universitario de Vinto)
- 0.83 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Aurora / Universitario de Vinto)
- 0.83 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Universitario de Vinto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Universitario de Vinto | 16% | 6.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aurora or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Universitario de Vinto) | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win by 2+ | 40% | 2.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aurora and Universitario de Vinto recent form
Aurora
2W 2D 2L
Universitario de Vinto
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aurora at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-1
- Win rate
- 45%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Universitario de Vinto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-9
- Win rate
- 9%
- Goals for / match
- 0.91
- Goals against / match
- 2.45
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Universitario de Vinto away only.
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aurora 3 · draws 0 · Universitario de Vinto 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Universitario de Vinto | 1-2 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-12-08 | Aurora | 2-0 | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-07-06 | Universitario de Vinto | 1-2 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
- Independiente Petrolero v Real Tomayapo — match page 2026-11-06
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Always Ready vs ABB 2026-11-07
- Guabirá v San Antonio Bulo Bulo — match page 2026-11-07
- Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Bolívar vs The Strongest 2026-11-08
- Blooming v Oriente Petrolero — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Aurora, previous: Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora: odds and pick
- Universitario de Vinto, previous: Universitario de Vinto vs Always Ready prediction