Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo preview
Independiente Petrolero has a 54% chance to win against Real Tomayapo, who have a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% probability. Independiente Petrolero's expected goals stand at 1.42, while Real Tomayapo's is only 0.70.
Independiente Petrolero's recent form shows 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Real Tomayapo has 1 win and 5 losses in the same period. There is a 36% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance for both teams to score. These factors could influence the outcome if Real Tomayapo improves their scoring or if Independiente Petrolero's form continues to decline.
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo: model vs market
| Source | Independiente Petrolero | Draw | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 30% | 17% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.70.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independiente Petrolero, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Petrolero | 1.52 | 1.65 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.96 | +0.10 |
| Real Tomayapo | 5.20 | 4.25 | -0.96 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Independiente Petrolero and Real Tomayapo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Independiente Petrolero / Real Tomayapo)
- 0.81 / 0.54
- Defence rating (Independiente Petrolero / Real Tomayapo)
- 1.01 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independiente Petrolero goals. Columns: Real Tomayapo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Petrolero | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Real Tomayapo | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.54 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independiente Petrolero or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Tomayapo) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Petrolero win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Independiente Petrolero and Real Tomayapo recent form
Independiente Petrolero
1W 2D 3L
Real Tomayapo
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independiente Petrolero at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-5
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Real Tomayapo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-9
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.58
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente Petrolero at home only, Real Tomayapo away only.
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Independiente Petrolero 6 · draws 1 · Real Tomayapo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Independiente Petrolero | 5-1 | Real Tomayapo | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2026-09-01 | Real Tomayapo | 3-0 | Independiente Petrolero | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2026-07-12 | Real Tomayapo | 2-1 | Independiente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2026-02-08 | Independiente Petrolero | 5-2 | Real Tomayapo | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| 2026-02-05 | Real Tomayapo | 2-1 | Independiente Petrolero | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| 2025-10-30 | Real Tomayapo | 3-6 | Independiente Petrolero | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-09-30 | Independiente Petrolero | 2-0 | Real Tomayapo | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-09-27 | Independiente Petrolero | 2-1 | Real Tomayapo | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-05-17 | Real Tomayapo | 3-3 | Independiente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2024-12-04 | Independiente Petrolero | 2-1 | Real Tomayapo | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Always Ready vs ABB 2026-11-07
- Guabirá v San Antonio Bulo Bulo — match page 2026-11-07
- Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Bolívar vs The Strongest 2026-11-08
- Blooming v Oriente Petrolero — match page 2026-11-08
- Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto — team news & stats 2026-11-10
Before and after this match
- Independiente Petrolero, previous: Real Potosí v Independiente Petrolero analysis
- Real Tomayapo, previous: Real Tomayapo – Blooming, 2026-11-02