Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora preview
Oriente Petrolero faces Aurora with a 65% probability of winning, while Aurora has just a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Oriente's expected goals of 2.08 compared to Aurora's 0.83. However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Aurora improves their scoring, as they have a 50% chance of both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, Oriente Petrolero has a mixed record with D-W-W-L-L-D, while Aurora's recent results show L-D-L-W-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Despite the strong likelihood of a win for Oriente, unexpected performances from Aurora could change the outcome.
Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora: model vs market
| Source | Oriente Petrolero | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.83.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Oriente Petrolero and Aurora expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Oriente Petrolero / Aurora)
- 1.07 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Oriente Petrolero / Aurora)
- 0.75 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oriente Petrolero goals. Columns: Aurora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oriente Petrolero | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Aurora | 13% | 7.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oriente Petrolero or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Aurora) | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oriente Petrolero win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Oriente Petrolero and Aurora recent form
Oriente Petrolero
2W 2D 2L
Aurora
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oriente Petrolero at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-2
- Win rate
- 70%
- Goals for / match
- 2.10
- Goals against / match
- 0.70
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Aurora away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Oriente Petrolero at home only, Aurora away only.
Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Oriente Petrolero 1 · draws 1 · Aurora 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Aurora | 2-2 | Oriente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-08-04 | Oriente Petrolero | 3-0 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-03-30 | Aurora | 5-1 | Oriente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Oriente Petrolero, previous: Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest: odds and pick
- Aurora, previous: Aurora v Real Tomayapo analysis