Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí preview
In the fixture between Real Oruro and Nacional Potosí, the model gives Real Oruro a 44% chance to win, compared to 30% for Nacional Potosí. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. The expected goals show Real Oruro at 1.66 and Nacional Potosí at 1.35, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a 61% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 58%. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Real Oruro has a mixed record of W-W-L-L-W-D, while Nacional Potosí has L-D-L-W-W-L. This inconsistency may lead to different results than predicted.
Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí: model vs market
| Source | Real Oruro | Draw | Nacional Potosí |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Real Oruro and Nacional Potosí expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Real Oruro / Nacional Potosí)
- 0.87 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Real Oruro / Nacional Potosí)
- 1.18 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Oruro goals. Columns: Nacional Potosí goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oruro | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Nacional Potosí | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Oruro or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Nacional Potosí) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Oruro win by 2+ | 23% | 4.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Oruro and Nacional Potosí recent form
Real Oruro
3W 1D 2L
Nacional Potosí
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Oruro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 2.27
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Nacional Potosí away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-6
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.45
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Oruro at home only, Nacional Potosí away only.
Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Real Oruro 2 · draws 0 · Nacional Potosí 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Nacional Potosí | 1-4 | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-12-11 | Real Oruro | 1-2 | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-07-14 | Nacional Potosí | 2-3 | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Real Oruro, previous: Always Ready – Real Oruro, 2026-10-25
- Nacional Potosí, previous: Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá prediction