Guabirá vs Bolívar preview
In the fixture between Guabirá and Bolívar, Bolívar has a 51% chance to win, compared to Guabirá's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with both teams to score at 63% and Over 2.5 goals at 62%. Bolívar's recent form shows 6 consecutive wins, while Guabirá has only 1 win in their last 6 matches.
Guabirá's expected goals stand at 1.29, while Bolívar's are higher at 1.90. This suggests Bolívar is more likely to dominate the match. However, if Guabirá can improve their form and capitalize on home advantage, they might challenge Bolívar's winning streak. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Guabirá vs Bolívar: model vs market
| Source | Guabirá | Draw | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Guabirá and Bolívar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Guabirá / Bolívar)
- 0.91 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Guabirá / Bolívar)
- 1.12 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guabirá vs Bolívar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guabirá goals. Columns: Bolívar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guabirá vs Bolívar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guabirá vs Bolívar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guabirá | 25% | 3.99 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Bolívar | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guabirá or draw) | 49% | 2.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Bolívar) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Guabirá and Bolívar recent form
Guabirá
1W 2D 3L
Bolívar
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guabirá at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-1
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 2.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolívar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 16 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guabirá at home only, Bolívar away only.
Guabirá vs Bolívar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Guabirá 0 · draws 0 · Bolívar 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Bolívar | 4-0 | Guabirá | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-09-13 | Bolívar | 4-0 | Guabirá | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-04-20 | Guabirá | 2-4 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 24 fixtures
- Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora 2026-10-31
- Real Oruro v Nacional Potosí — match page 2026-10-31
- ABB vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2026-11-01
- Universitario de Vinto vs Always Ready — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Guabirá, previous: Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá prediction
- Bolívar, previous: Bolívar – Universitario de Vinto, 2026-10-27