The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ preview
In the fixture between The Strongest and Gualberto Villarroel SJ, the 1X2 probabilities show The Strongest at 71%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 11%. The Strongest has a strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Gualberto Villarroel SJ has struggled, losing 4 of their last 6.
The expected goals indicate The Strongest at 2.44 and Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 0.90, suggesting a significant attacking advantage for The Strongest. However, if Gualberto Villarroel SJ can improve their form and capitalize on any defensive mistakes, they might challenge the expected outcome. The model also suggests a 65% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score.
The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ: model vs market
| Source | The Strongest | Draw | Gualberto Villarroel SJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
The Strongest and Gualberto Villarroel SJ expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (The Strongest / Gualberto Villarroel SJ)
- 1.13 / 0.86
- Defence rating (The Strongest / Gualberto Villarroel SJ)
- 0.81 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: The Strongest goals. Columns: Gualberto Villarroel SJ goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The Strongest | 71% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 11% | 9.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (The Strongest or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ) | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | The Strongest win by 2+ | 49% | 2.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
The Strongest and Gualberto Villarroel SJ recent form
The Strongest
4W 0D 2L
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
The Strongest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-1
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 13 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-7
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.91
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 3 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: The Strongest at home only, Gualberto Villarroel SJ away only.
The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: The Strongest 2 · draws 1 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 0-0 | The Strongest | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-08-23 | The Strongest | 2-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 0-4 | The Strongest | Bolivia Primera División |
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Before and after this match
- The Strongest, previous: Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest: odds and pick
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ, previous: Gualberto Villarroel SJ v Blooming analysis