Aurora vs Real Tomayapo preview
In the match between Aurora and Real Tomayapo, the 1X2 probabilities show Aurora at 54% to win, while Real Tomayapo stands at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance of occurring. Aurora's expected goals are 1.48 compared to Real Tomayapo's 0.71, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Aurora.
However, the recent form could impact the outcome. Aurora has two wins in their last five matches, while Real Tomayapo has three losses in their last five. Additionally, both teams to score sits at 41%, suggesting that while Aurora may dominate, Real Tomayapo could still find a way to score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Aurora vs Real Tomayapo: model vs market
| Source | Aurora | Draw | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.71.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aurora and Real Tomayapo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Aurora / Real Tomayapo)
- 0.86 / 0.59
- Defence rating (Aurora / Real Tomayapo)
- 0.94 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aurora vs Real Tomayapo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Real Tomayapo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aurora vs Real Tomayapo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aurora vs Real Tomayapo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Real Tomayapo | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aurora or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Tomayapo) | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win by 2+ | 29% | 3.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aurora and Real Tomayapo recent form
Aurora
2W 2D 2L
Real Tomayapo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aurora at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.10
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Real Tomayapo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-8
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.64
- Goals against / match
- 2.45
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 4 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Real Tomayapo away only.
Aurora vs Real Tomayapo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aurora 1 · draws 1 · Real Tomayapo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Real Tomayapo | 0-2 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-09-19 | Aurora | 1-2 | Real Tomayapo | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-05-04 | Real Tomayapo | 0-0 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 23 fixtures
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Blooming 2026-10-24
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo v Real Potosí — match page 2026-10-24
- Independiente Petrolero vs ABB — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Always Ready vs Real Oruro 2026-10-25
- Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá 2026-10-26
- Bolívar v Universitario de Vinto — match page 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Aurora, previous: Real Oruro vs Aurora prediction
- Aurora, next: Oriente Petrolero vs Aurora: odds and pick
- Real Tomayapo, previous: Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ: odds and pick